In accordance with analysis of various examples, this paper points out that so far as same primitive sequence is concerned, forecasting value of GM(1,1) enlarges when the calculating null point rises, and the second term of the new sequence decreases, and cumulative number increases.
根據(jù)各種應(yīng)用實(shí)例的分析，指出對(duì)于同一原始序列來(lái)說(shuō)，當(dāng)計(jì)算零點(diǎn)升高、新序列的第二項(xiàng)減小或累加次數(shù)增多時(shí)，ＧＭ（１，１）模型的預(yù)測(cè)值增大，同時(shí)指出這些問(wèn)題是由ＧＭ（１，１）模型本身的特點(diǎn)所決定的。
So in this paper,an improved gray forecasting model was proposed based on the basic principles of grey model which use one-accumulated exponential model.
灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型要求原始數(shù)據(jù)序列滿足指數(shù)規(guī)律,而實(shí)際上城市用水波動(dòng)性大,無(wú)典型指數(shù)趨勢(shì)變化,而一般呈代數(shù)曲線形式變化,因此本文提出了改進(jìn)的灰色模型在城市年用水量預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用,改進(jìn)的灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型主要基于灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型一次累加的建模思路。
s one-accumulate living water quantity time-series data have the obvious line trend; The industry water quantity time-series data obey one kind of variety polynomial.
在對(duì)某市年用水量隨機(jī)時(shí)間序列原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)處理的基礎(chǔ)上,發(fā)現(xiàn)年生活用水量的一次累加時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)具有明顯的線性趨勢(shì)。
Because of the city s annual water consumption forecasting time-series has the characteristics of randomness,and one-accumulate methods has the characteristics of smoothing time-series randomness,improving rule ness and it s easy for regressing.
基于年需水量原始時(shí)間序列具有非線性隨機(jī)變化的特點(diǎn),而一次累加法具有削弱時(shí)間序列隨機(jī)性、增加時(shí)間序列規(guī)律性、便于回歸函數(shù)擬合的特點(diǎn),該文提出了一次累加回歸分析法在城市年需水量預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用。